Transboundary Reservoir Operations

The Power of Data in the Mekong

Using a new data-driven platform, Future H2O is collaborating with the Mekong River Commission to optimise the basin for fish, floods and energy.

Introduction

Nearly 65 million people live in the Lower Mekong River Basin, and an estimated 80% of those residents depend on the river and its vast natural resources (such as fish) for their livelihoods. The region is experiencing dramatic change — but the need here for abundant, clean fresh water remains.

Established in 1995, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is an intergovernmental organization that serves as a regional platform for water diplomacy and a knowledge hub of water resources management for the sustainable development of the Lower Mekong River Basin. The MRC’s work stretches across Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Made up of scientists and policymakers from all four countries, the MRC uses science to guide water management across the river’s basin.

Future H20-B was invited to work with the MRC to build both a “hydro-fisheries” model (connecting the Mekong’s hydrology to its fisheries) and an optimization framework to inform hydropower dam planning and eventually dam operations on the Lower Mekong. Among the goals for the framework: Inform policy development for operating dams so the dams deliver the best set of services to MRC member countries while maintaining the integrity of the river’s highly productive ecosystems.

The Challenge: Many Needs, Many Countries

Decision-making across four countries, each with different drivers of their national economies, and each with different connections and relationships with the river, is an incredibly complex undertaking. Some factors include:


  • Dams: how many, where, and how to manage. There are many existing and proposed dams on the mainstem Mekong River and its tributaries. The Lower Mekong River Basin countries need to manage these dams — their siting, planning and operations — to optimize delivery of flood control, hydropower, fish for food, biodiversity and sediment…just to name a few benefits of the river.

  • Geographic influence. The Mekong River begins in China, then flows through Myanmar — but those countries are not members of the MRC. China has built 11 dams on the upper reaches of the mainstemincluding six just since 1993 — and when those dams are filling there's less water downstream for the MRC to work with.

  • Monsoonal Inputs. About 50% of the annual streamflow of the Mekong comes during the monsoon season, which primarily touches down in Laos and Vietnam, and to a certain extent in Cambodia and Thailand. But currently, these countries don’t have the ability to coordinate their dam operations across national boundaries and between their governments and the dam operations of state-owned private-sector companies in China.


Future H2O-B’s Approach: Optimization and Water Independence Through Algorithmic Management

The MRC’s strategic plan includes objectives for each country and objectives that consider the well-being of the system. The MRC also has a Decision Support Framework (DSF), which establishes a transparent modeling platform to describe hydrological and other impacts of water resource development in the Lower Mekong Basin.

The optimization framework Future H2O-B is developing with the MRC will tie the strategic plan and DSF together – dam siting, dam planning (how countries can use existing and planned dams to deliver on strategic 10-year objectives) as well as dam operations (daily operations to achieve desired scenarios) – to make it possible to deliver on all strategic objectives for the basin, including considerations such as:


  • Operations plans for existing and planned infrastructure to create water independence, such as capturing more extreme monsoon rainfall for later use across the basin.

  • Flow prescriptions for current and future dams on the mainstem river and tributaries to improve fish passage — a critical aspect of supporting local economies and cultures.

  • How to use locally-derived streamflow from the four member countries to mitigate low-season water flows from upstream countries that are not in partnership with the MRC. (Very low flows can exacerbate sea water intrusions into the Lower Mekong’s delta, impacting agriculture in one of the world’s most important rice-growing regions.)


Outcomes: Planning Pays Off

Future H2O-B has already delivered the “hydro-fisheries” model to the MRC. In the Mekong, food security is tied to fish production, primarily in Cambodia, and rice production, mainly in Thailand and Viet-Nam. We are providing tools to help the MRC optimize hydrology for the needs of those two important industries.

The full optimization framework will be delivered to the MRC at the end of 2023. This work can serve as a blueprint for other complex freshwater systems, demonstrating that collaboration-driven, science-based optimization modeling can solve for delivering multiple objectives to multiple actors and nations across a basin.

Next Steps

The MRC will undergo a process to refresh the Decision Support Framework in the coming years. Future H2O-B is honored to participate in that process — with the goal of fully integrating optimization into the updated Framework.